UK Economy Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Levels: Nov GDP + 0.9%

UK GDP, GBP/USD Evaluation:

  • UK economic system rose 0.9% in November, taking the economic system previous pre-pandemic ranges
  • Omicron and ‘Plan B’ might dampen the temper with decrease anticipated GDP in Dec & Jan
  • Key GBP/USD technical ranges analyzed alongside IG Shopper Sentiment knowledge

November GDP Surpasses Expectations

The British economic system grew by 0.9% in November propelling the general measurement of the economic system to 0.7% above the pre-pandemic stage. In actual fact, the UK economic system was 8% bigger than November 2020.

UK november GDP

Supply: DailyFX financial calendar

The optimistic knowledge additional helps market expectations of one other Financial institution of England (BoE) fee hike in February. At the moment fee markets have priced in a 75% likelihood of a hike from 0.25% to 0.5% when the group is because of meet on the threerd of February. Nevertheless, with the emergence of the Omicron variant and subsequent restrictions imposed through ‘Plan B’, decrease ranges of financial exercise could floor for December and January which might end in a sudden repricing of the anticipated fee hike – much like what we noticed after the BoE’s resolution to not hike charges in November final 12 months.

Key Technical ranges (GBP/USD)

The Pound Sterling continues its spectacular bull run after breaking above the trendline help which stems from the 2021 excessive. Tuesday this week was once we noticed the pair commerce above the trendline however Wednesday supplied the momentum wanted to substantiate the renewed bullish intent, because the publish CPI greenback sell-off boosted GBP/USD.

The greenback decline, optimistic GDP figures and growing speak of one other fee hike subsequent month has helped help Sterling at present ranges. A bullish continuation highlights the 1.3780 and 1.3835 ranges of resistance.

Nevertheless, dangers to the draw back have emerged because the pair continues to commerce in overbought territory (RSI) and the greenback – through proxy within the US greenback basket (DXY) – makes an attempt to cease the latest spate of promoting because it trades flat within the early hours of the London session. Nearest help stays the 1.3675 stage with trendline help the subsequent related stage to look at earlier than 1.3515 comes into focus.

GBP/USD Every day Chart

Daily GBP/USD chart

Chart ready by Richard Snow, IG

Shopper Sentiment Favors Bullish Continuation

Retail dealer knowledge exhibits 38.09% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants quick to lengthy at 1.63 to 1.

GBP/USD sentiment

  • We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-short suggests GBP/USD costs could proceed to rise.
  • The variety of merchants net-long is 0.62% larger than yesterday and 15.53% decrease from final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 1.42% larger than yesterday and 33.53% larger from final week.
  • Merchants are additional net-short than yesterday and final week, and the mixture of present sentiment and up to date modifications provides us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian buying and selling bias.

— Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com

Contact and observe Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX


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