Stable job market is ‘mixed blessing’ for UK workers

The tempo of change within the UK jobs market has slowed to its lowest stage in a long time and, even the disruption of the pandemic, has been a far cry from the upheaval of the Nineteen Eighties, based on analysis by the Decision Basis and the London Faculty of Economics.

The think-tank mentioned its findings, printed on Thursday, have been at odds with in style perceptions that adjustments to working life have been accelerating, with robots quickly changing folks and gig economic system jobs changing manufacturing unit work.

“These claims are very large of the mark. The fact is that the tempo of change has been slowing down, not dashing up,” mentioned Nye Cominetti, senior economist on the Decision Basis.

The UK has seen an enormous long-term shift in employment away from manufacturing — whose workforce fell by greater than 5m between 1970 and 2021 — and into skilled providers, well being and schooling, in addition to decrease paid sectors corresponding to hospitality and administration.

This variation was not all completed via brutal lay-offs of mid-career employees: a lot of the autumn in manufacturing employment was owing to a extra natural strategy of older workers leaving the workforce altogether, whereas younger folks joined different sectors, the report mentioned.

However the charge at which jobs in several sectors have grown and shrunk has slowed dramatically, reaching its lowest stage in a century throughout the previous decade. Even in 2021, with all of the dislocations owing to the pandemic, adjustments within the construction of the labour market represented simply 7 per cent of whole employment, a few third of the height reached within the late Nineteen Eighties, the researchers discovered.

The Decision Basis mentioned this relative stability had been a “combined blessing for employees”, because it had lessened the chance of individuals dropping their job, and being pressured to downgrade to a worse one — but it surely had additionally meant fewer alternatives to maneuver to a brand new job providing higher pay and prospects.

The share of employees dropping their job in every three month interval halved between 1991 and 2019. However the share of employees selecting to vary jobs in every quarter additionally fell sharply, from 3.2 per cent in 2000 to 2.4 per cent in 2019 — a drop of 25 per cent. In the meantime, the share of employees selecting to maneuver to a job in a brand new sector fell by 35 per cent throughout the identical interval.

That is probably a draw back, since over a 50 yr interval, pay progress for employees who transfer jobs has on common been 4 proportion factors greater than for these selecting to remain put.

Nonetheless, the report cautioned that the tempo of change within the labour market is more likely to choose up over the following decade, as the mixture of Covid-19, Brexit and the transition to internet zero reshape the economic system. The authors including that policymakers ought to attempt to ease the transition so far as doable by steering younger folks into careers in rising sectors, moderately than “trying to hasten the exit of older employees” in Nineteen Eighties type.

“Staff ought to benefit from this modification with pay-enhancing job strikes,” Cominetti mentioned, including: “Many employees will lose out too, nevertheless, and they’ll have to be higher protected than they’ve been throughout earlier intervals of massive financial change.”


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