AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR ANALYSIS
- Threat on triggered after Fed Chair Powell listening to.
- Main Australian linked commodities push greater.
- Bear flag sample nonetheless holds.
- IG Consumer Sentiment (IGCS) bullish.
AUD/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell dampened hawkish hopes after emphasis was placed on a mid-2022 inflation peak whereas decreasing the ballooning stability sheet is more likely to happen later this 12 months. The U.S. greenback pale together with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields benefitting most USD crosses. The Australian Greenback was no exception with assist from greater oil costs (inverse relationship with USD) enhancing commodity forex enchantment. AUD related commodities together with pure fuel, coal and iron ore all ticked greater giving added impetus to Aussie upside.
AUD/USD OPTION EXPIRIES TODAY:
- 0.6995-0.7010 (587M), 0.7180-90 (639M)
Whereas these expiries aren’t extraordinarily important in dimension, it’s all the time good to remember as markets are likely to push costs in direction of strike costs which can result in a pullback from present ranges as expiry looms.
Supply: DailyFX financial calendar
The spotlight of the week is undoubtedly U.S. inflation with each core and headline figures anticipated to come back in greater than prior prints. An estimate beat may spur on greater Treasury yields favoring greenback upside. Ought to precise knowledge are available in decrease than estimates, there could also be short-term greenback weak point nevertheless from the Fed’s perspective one knowledge level is unlikely to considerably alter the present hawkish outlook.
AUD/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
AUD/USD DAILY CHART
Chart ready by Warren Venketas, IG
AUD/USD value motion continues its spiral throughout the bear flag formation (blue) since early December. This weeks rally sees costs push above the 61.8% Fibonacci at 0.7183, opening up room towards the 0.7250 psychological stage.
The Relative Energy Index (RSI)sits across the midpoint 50 stage, suggestive of ambiguity round momentum. This might change post-inflation knowledge which can catalyze a directional bias.
Key resistance ranges:
- 100-day EMA (yellow)
Key assist ranges:
IG CLIENT SENTIMENT DATA HINTS AT NEAR TERM AUSSIE STRENGTH
IGCS exhibits retail merchants are web lengthy on AUD/USD, with 52% of merchants at present holding lengthy positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-long is suggestive of a bearish bias nevertheless, the latest change in web shorts factors to a bullish bias.
Contact and observe Warren on Twitter: @WVenketas