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It’s Important to Have Conviction


2021 was a great yr should you have been lengthy danger throughout a variety of asset lessons. However not everybody discovered the atmosphere profitable, subsumed by the deleterious barrage of damaging information headlines concerning the COVID-19 delta variant, the omicron variant, provide chain points, inflation, the US debt ceiling, Evergrande…the record goes on.

And but, regardless of these obstacles, they actually represented nothing greater than bricks within the ephemeral wall of fear. Merchants that have been capable of plan their commerce and commerce their plan got here out on prime.

For myself, there have been quite a few instances in 2021, with the advantage of hindsight, that my evaluation was appropriate, my technique was appropriate, however my danger tolerance was too timid. In different phrases, I left potential earnings on the desk by not having sufficient conviction, too intimidated by what I used to be studying and seeing within the information.

Which brings me to this remark from George Soros to Stanley Druckenmiller, veritable macro buying and selling legends:

“One billion {dollars}? You name {that a} place?” George Soros requested his accomplice Stanley Druckenmiller. Soros continued, “It takes braveness to be a pig.”

Druckenmiller’s perception into this remark is timeless:

“It isn’t whether or not you are proper or fallacious that is essential, however how a lot cash you make once you’re proper and the way a lot you lose once you’re fallacious. The few instances that Soros has ever criticized me was once I was actually proper on a market and did not maximize the chance.”

The purpose is that once you’ve achieved your evaluation, once you’ve created your technique, once you dimension your danger appropriately, you must act with braveness – with conviction. Don’t let alternatives slip by; you miss 100% of the photographs you don’t take.



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