Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, Fed, Euro, ECB, Oil, Volatility Returns?

To learn the complete DailyFX fourth-quarter forecasts, obtain our new 4Q buying and selling information from the DailyFX Free Buying and selling Guides!

As buyers head into the fourth quarter, the VIX Volatility Index – sometimes called the market’s ‘worry gauge’ – is in an uptrend. In September, US benchmark inventory indices noticed a number of the worst month-to-month efficiency since March 2020. In reality, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 completed the third quarter little modified. Extra importantly, they trimmed most of their positive factors. The Dow Jones declined.

Many of the market jitters unfolded into the tail finish of the third quarter. That can also be in keeping with historic requirements. September tends to be dismal month for sentiment as merchants come again on-line from the summer season lull. A number of consideration was on the Federal Reserve, the place Chair Jerome Powell signaled that coverage tapering might be accomplished by the center of subsequent yr.

This pushed the 10-year Treasury yield, and front-end authorities bond charges, greater. A mixture of this and volatility aided the haven-linked US Greenback. The Dollar outperformed most of its friends in Q3, particularly in opposition to the sentiment-linked Australian Greenback. Fears of a Chinese language financial slowdown, particularly amid the fluid surroundings round Evergrande, weighed in opposition to growth-linked belongings.

Gold costs weakened in September, trimming positive factors from earlier within the third quarter. A rising US Greenback and bond yields might make it a tough surroundings for XAU/USD. In the meantime, crude oil costs trimmed losses within the third quarter. Strong demand estimates, coupled with provide constraints, are bolstering power costs. OPEC doesn’t appear poised to extend output into the tip of the yr.

All eyes are on the US authorities because the fourth quarter will get underway. Whereas a shutdown has been averted for now, the debt ceiling has not but been raised as Democrats and Republicans wrestle to come back to phrases. September’s non-farm payrolls report will even be carefully watched. A materially decrease final result dangers derailing the central financial institution’s lose coverage unwinding.

In the meantime in Europe, the European Central Financial institution might stay comparatively dovish in comparison with the Federal Reserve. That might go away EUR/USD biased decrease as policymakers persist with the script that inflation might be transitory. Within the coming months, this narrative will likely be more and more examined. What else is in retailer for monetary markets within the fourth quarter?

To learn the complete DailyFX fourth-quarter forecasts, obtain our new 4Q buying and selling information from the DailyFX Free Buying and selling Guides!


Markets Q4 Outlook: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Gold, Fed, Euro, ECB, Oil, Volatility Returns?

Elementary Forecasts:

Euro This autumn Elementary Forecast: Extra Euro Weak point Possible Lies Forward

The ECB, and by extension the Euro, faces the unenviable mixture in This autumn of weakening financial development and above-target inflation.

Japanese Yen This autumn Elementary Forecast: USD/JPY Possible Stays Skewed Increased

The Japanese Yen wrapped up a reasonably regular third quarter, however seemingly stays weak in opposition to the US Greenback heading into the tip of 2021. Will a less-dovish Fed push USD/JPY greater?

US Greenback This autumn Elementary Forecast: Greenback Outlook Corporations as World Danger Traits Cool and Yields Rise

The Greenback has tried a critical bullish break within the transition from the third to fourth quarter of 2021. With Fed price forecasts charged and threat tendencies wavering, what’s in retailer for the Dollar?

Australian Greenback This autumn Elementary Forecast: AUD/USD Has Hurdles that May very well be Overcome

The Australian Greenback made a brand new low for the yr within the third quarter as exterior elements hampered the outlook. Will the chance surroundings proceed to weigh the AUD/USD down?

British Pound This autumn Forecast: Getting ready the Floor for Curiosity Price Hikes

The fourth quarter of 2021 will seemingly see the Financial institution of England begin speaking about rate of interest hikes as early as the start of subsequent yr, boosting the attraction of Sterling.

Equities This autumn Elementary Forecast: Brief-Time period Uncertainties However Longer-Time period Fortunes

All through the third quarter, there had been considerably of a reversal within the reflation commerce as considerations over the height within the world development lingered, alongside the continued unfold of the Delta variant.

Oil This autumn Elementary Forecast: Stronger Demand to Be Met with Restricted Provide

The value of oil trades again above the $70 deal with going into the fourth quarter of 2021 as indicators of stronger demand are met with restricted provide.

Technical Forecasts:

US Greenback This autumn Technical Forecast: Constructing for Breakout

The US Greenback simply couldn’t anticipate the beginning of This autumn to start its breakout, however what do the techs say for the remainder of the quarter?

British Pound This autumn Technical Forecast: Have GBP Bulls Run Out of Steam?

This autumn could also be 1 / 4 of challenges for GBP bulls. Get the This autumn Technical Forecast for the British Pound, just lately launched from DailyFX.

Euro This autumn Technical Forecast: Stability of Danger Tilts to the Draw back

EUR/USD worth motion was unimpressive for a lot of Q3, however a depressing outlook might lie forward given how This autumn has began.

Gold This autumn Technical Forecast: Lengthy-term Worth Sample Stays in Focus

Gold might wrestle to supply good directional cues throughout the ultimate body of the yr, however there are nonetheless vital signposts to look at for.

Australian Greenback This autumn Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Restoration Weak into Shut of 2021

Heading into the third quarter, our forecast highlighted that the Australian Greenback was threatening a break, “under the yearly opening-range into the shut of June and we’re looking out for an exhaustion low heading into the third quarter.”

Equities This autumn Technical Forecast: S&P 500 Bounces Again, DAX 40 and Nikkei 225 Confronted With Indecision

World equities are struggling to get again on the bullish trendline as Q3 ends with bearish corrections

Oil This autumn Technical Forecast: Downturn within the Works?

Crude oil costs could also be organising for a downturn in This autumn, and our just lately launched forecasts spotlight the place this would possibly happen.

Yen 4Q Forecast: USD/JPY Possible Stays Skewed Increased

USD/JPY appears set to maneuver greater in This autumn after costs broke greater from a Symmetrical Triangle sample.


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